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Barstool Sports Store Sales Are Stagnant – Why?

Build an audience, then sell to that audience. This is one of my favorite strategies for building a business. And Barstool Sports is a perfect example of this. They have spent 18 years authentically building an audience, and because of this, they have been able to cash in with that audience. 

Barstool Sports has 12.1M followers on Instagram, 3.1M followers on Twitter, 4m followers on Facebook, 923K subscribers on Youtube, and 15M followers on TikTok. They average 9M site visits per month to their website.

So, How Much Revenue Do They Generate From Their Merch Store?

Well… I am still trying to get to the bottom of it. I started tracking the Barstool Sports Store at the end of July. I noted, on one random day in June, Barstool Sports processed more than 1800 orders. Then, in July, they received over 54,000 orders (an estimated $1.9M in revenue). I assumed the summer months would be slow for their merch store, and they would see a pick-up in the fall.

It would appear that I am wrong. It seems there was a slight revenue increase in September, but overall sales have been somewhat flat (averaging about 1800 orders per day). 

Barstool Sports Store current run rate is about $25M in total revenue. However, that feels low to me. I know they will have a big push for Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and the Holidays. But that will only get them to $30m-$35M in total yearly revenue. 

Why Are Barstool Sports Store Sales Flat? Have They Reached A Saturation Point?

I need to see more data, but here is what I am currently seeing. BarstoolSports.com site traffic has been relatively flat at about 9M visits per month for the past 6 months.

 

I assumed with College Football and the NFL coming back along with the MLB heading into the playoffs, there would have been an increase in site traffic and an increase in merchandise revenue. But I am not seeing that.

Top Selling Brands On Barstool Sports

  1. Call Her Daddy
  2. Saturdays are for the boys
  3. Fore-Play / Golf
  4. Barstool Outdoors
  5. Spittin Chicklets / Hockey

Call Her Daddy podcast is no longer on the Barstool Network (now on Spotify), but Barstool still has the rights to sell the merchandise for the brand. Saturdays are for the boys is a brand that is at least 5 years old and is not actively promoted on their website or on any of their content.

To me, this is signaling that there has not been any new brands or merchandise releases that is moving the needle in sales for their store.

In fact, they are probably just finding ways to fill the drop in merchandise sales for Call Her Daddy.

Call Her Daddy Data

As you can see “Call Her Daddy Merch” searches have been trending down. There was an explosion of searches during covid (and I think that coincided with their contract negotiations that went viral), but even in the last 6 months, searches for this merchandise has been trending down.

30% of all Barstool Store traffic lands on the Call Her Daddy Merchandise page. Their top Google ad that drives traffic to the Barstool Sports Store is for Call Her Daddy Merchandise.

Barstool no longer owns this podcast and the macro interest in this merchandise appears to be down. Never mind its not even featured on their store’s home page. The sales for this product line has to be down and Barstool needs to find a way to replace that revenue.

Barstool Gambling

In years past, Barstool would make a good amount of its revenue from merchandise sales. There was a focus to make sure they were selling merchandise. Last year, Penn National Gaming took a 36% stake in Barstool and maybe the focus for Barstool switched from merchandise sales to generate revenue to gambling to generate revenue. 

Barstool is now monetizing the audience they built through gambling, and it is possible that their merchandise sales have become second in priority. 

Other Barstool Sports Store Data:

Top Performing Paid Keywords

  1. call her daddy sweatshirt
  2. barstool store
  3. call her daddy merch
  4. barstool shop
  5. barstool sports store
  6. barstool golf

Facebook Ads

Barstool currently has 100 active ads on Facebook. Only 6 of those ads were launched in October.

See Barstool Sports Facebook Ads

Audience Demographics

71% Male/29% Female. 78% of their audience is between the ages of 18-34. 83% of their audience is based in the United States

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As I said before, I would need to see year over year data to accurately assess my assumption that Barstool Sports Store sales have leveled off. There is a chance this is part of some seasonality but again, logic would tell me that as college football and NFL return their merchandise revenue would increase. Next month, I will return recapping their Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales event!

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Muddy Bites: The Effects Of Going Viral

On July 20th, Muddy Bites went viral in a @fuckjerry Instagram post.

Over 940,000 people liked this post, and it gained almost 16,000 comments.

I have been tracking Muddy Bites sales since March and it is very interesting to see what this post did for Muddy Bites sales.

Muddy Bites Change In Sales Last 6 Months

Between the middle of March and middle of June, Muddy Bites was averaging about 140 orders per day. From the Middle of June to Early August, Muddy Bites averaged 360 orders per day (the reality is there was a major spike of orders just after July 20th). Muddy Bites had to go on a shipping delay in early August because of the increased volume they saw. Because of that, their average daily order volume dropped to about 185 orders per day. In September and October, Muddy Bites averaged 153 orders per day.

The Effects Of Going Viral

Muddy Bites saw a drastic increase in orders right after going viral. Their site traffic spiked, their Instagram followers nearly doubled, and search volume for their brand name spiked. However, this appears to be a quick hit and has not elevated their long-term sales. Their September and October revenue is slightly higher than their monthly revenue was before this viral post.

All these metrics show a slight elevation post-viral vs. before going viral. This could be attributed partly to them going out of stock and then losing the momentum of the viral post.

I am still holding out hope that Muddy Bites can turn all of this interest in their product into long-term revenue growth. It is also possible that those who purchased right after the viral post are not ready to repurchase yet. (My wife has a subscription to Muddy Bites, and she has extended it out to the maximum time of 8 weeks for each delivery).

Lastly, there is always a possibility that people liked the idea of this product more than they actually liked the product when they got it. They tried it, and that was enough for them.

What Could Muddy Bites Do To Drive New Sales?

Come out with a new product! We have seen this tactic work for Nugget Comfort. They bring out new product lines and retire old ones.

And that is exactly what Muddy Bites is about to do

WHITE CHOCOLATE! A new flavor for their audience to try. These launch tomorrow (Wednesday, October 27th), and they are using a scarcity tactic to drive urgency by only offering 20,000 bags. 

I am curious to see the effect of this release on their sales.

More Muddy Bites Data….

Audience Demographics

Muddy Bites has a younger audience that is 70% female. 70% of their audience is based in the Untied States

Facebook Advertising

Muddy Bites currently has 9 active ads on Facebook. I would say these ads look like baseline campaigns and they are not trying any strategy on Facebook at the moment besides getting their product on people’s feeds.

See Muddy Bites’ Facebook ads

Top Paid Keywords

  1. ice cream cone chocolate bottom
  2. muddy hites
  3. muddy bites price
  4. muddy bites 7/11
  5. muddy buddy bites
  6. muddy bites where to buy
  7. where can i get muddy bites

Seeing “Muddy Bites 7/11”, “muddy bites where to buy”, and “where can i get muddy bites” makes me curious what efforts they are doing to try to get their product into wholesale. I know they have had manufacturing issues and have not been able to outsource that yet (they have been manually manufacturing this product themselves). But if they can figure out the manufacturing, wholesale could explode this brand and increase their DTC sales as well. (note they are planning wholesale in Q4 of 2021)

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City Bonfires 3x Its Order Volume

I last took a look in on City Bonfires back in late August (see previous article). At that point, they were averaging about 100 orders a day through their website. Now that fall has fully set in, how is City Bonfires doing today?

Their average daily orders have more than tripled! In September, on average, they received 315 orders per day through their website.

Their average order value is estimated to be about $30. In August, they had a run rate of $1.1M through their website. Their run rate is now almost $3.5M in yearly revenue through their website.

How Did They Triple Their Order Volume?

I do not have the exact answer, but I do have a few ideas. 

First, they were already building positive momentum and fall is a perfect time to sell this product

The search term “bonfire” sees an increase in searches during September and October (there is a bump in December and May as well).

Second, search volume for the term “City Bonfire” more than doubled from August to September. In August, that term was searched 6,600 times. In September, it was searched 14,800 times. Of course, the question now is why? And the next two reasons may give us an idea. 

Third, City Bonfires was featured on the Today Show on September 22nd. I have had first-hand experience with having products featured on the Today Show. Typically these sales happen on a 3rd party site (so I would not be able to see the sales through City Bonfires’ website). However, there is often a spillover. People will go search the product name and opt to purchase it directly through your site. 

Also at the same time, the Today Show put out this article: “Bug shied blankets, fire pits and more outdoor entertaining must-haves“. This article featured City Bonfires and linked to their Amazon Store and their website.

And lastly, City Bonfires was featured in a USA Today Article: “12 top-rated outdoor fire pits to cozy up your yard before fall rolls in“. This article does direct people to their Amazon listing. However, I have also seen these spill-over to sales on your own website.

30% Increase In Instagram Followers

In the past two months, City Bonfires has grown its Instagram following from 47K to 62K. Most likely, this can also be attributed to the visibility they got from the Today Show and USA Today.

Is TikTok Advertising Working For Them?

If I had to guess, I would say no. As I have said before, my general rule is if a company continues to advertise on a channel, that means that channel works for them (or they just like to waste money).

I found 3 ads that were posted on 10/5. One ad has received 10,000 views, and the other two had 6,500 and 3000 views. In July, City Bonfires had ads that were viewed well over 100,000 times. 

Their TikTok account only has 187 followers and total likes on their videos only adds up to 953. My guess is that they had some early success on getting views on their ads, but they are struggling to find consistent traction on TikTok.

Facebook Advertising

City Bonfires currently has 88 ads active on Facebook. 1 ad launched in October and 2 Ads launched in September.

In August, they had 140 active ads on Facebook.

See City Bonfires’ Facebook Ads

Side Note: I have seen most companies reduce the number of ads on Facebook from the Summer to Fall. My first thought was this was seasonality, but I am curious if it has anything to do with the effectiveness of Facebook Ads since the IOS update. 

Paid Keywords

August Top 5 Paid Keywords:

  1. smores kit
  2. s more in a hor
  3. tabletop smores
  4. bonbfires
  5. bon bon fires

Current Top 5 Paid Keywords:

  1. portable campfire
  2. fire in a can
  3. portable bonfire
  4. smores food truck
  5. camp fire smores

The current search terms are providing a lot more traffic and are better related to what they are actually selling (they do sell a smores kit but their product is the portable campfire).

Customization/Corporate Gifts

I touched upon this in my last write-up. This channel seems to have a lot of opportunity for them. Unfortunately, I have no way of tracking this channel but they continue to advertise for it on Facebook. My guess is this channel can equal, if not surpass their DTC and Amazon sales.

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HOW I TRACK AND ESTIMATE DTC/ECOMMERCE SALES (PLUS AN UPDATE ON NUGGET COMFORT)

This is my 4th-month tracking Nugget Comfort. I am so impressed with their level of business, I am starting to think I might be getting duped. I have been asked many times, “how I estimate a companies revenue?”. 

Here Is How I Estimate A Companies Revenue:

Most eCommerce systems are set up with sequential order numbers. If you place two orders a set time apart, the difference in order numbers is the total number of orders for that period of time.

Then, I have to estimate their average order value. There is no way for me to know for sure what their average order value is, but there are ways to get relatively close. 

First, I look for the most popular products on their website. Most times, there will be a filter on their website that allows you to sort their product listings by most popular (if they are on Shopify, there is a url trick to sort by their most sold products). I will also look at the number of reviews on each product. What products have the most reviews? What products have the most recent reviews?

Second, I look at what they do on-site to try to increase average order value. Do they have a free shipping threshold? Do they offer cross-sells and upsells in the cart? Do they have other offers to increase average order size (i.e. buy two get one free)?

Lastly, I use my 10 years of experience in eCommerce to guess if their products are something that a consumer will buy multiple of.

Once I have the estimated average order value, I multiple that times the number of orders during that period of time to get my estimated revenue for that period of time. I will do this monthly to keep a running track of how a business is doing.

What’s the data I have for Nugget Comfort?

Here are the orders I have for Nugget Comfort:

05/31/2021 – 466342

07/03/2021 – 489470

07/28/2021 – 504958

09/14/2021 – 543882

10/04/2021 – 567670

I break this down to the average number of orders for each month:

June – 700 average daily orders

July – 595 average daily orders

August – 828 average daily orders

September – 1189 average daily orders

Average Order Value:

Nugget only offers a few items for sale. 1 is their flagship product, The Nugget Comfort Couch, for $225. They also sell the triangle pieces and replaced covers for $99. The vast majority of orders are going be for their flagship product. There will be some orders for the replacement covers and extra triangle pieces. There will also be some orders for people buying more than one Nugget. For these reasons, I estimate their average order value is approximately $225.

Monthly Revenue Numbers:

June – $4.7M

July – $4.1M

August – $5.7M

September – $8M

Am I getting duped?

These are crazy good revenue numbers, especially when they have zero ads on Facebook and zero ads on Google. I start to second guess my methods, are they really doing this level of business?

So how could I be duped?

I know that they are on Shopify. And 100% Shopify uses sequential order numbers. However, Shopify does let you put a prefix or a suffix on your order numbers. Some companies will put a few letters before or after their order number. I have seen some other companies put numbers before or after they order numbers. Looking at these order numbers, I am fairly positive they are not using a prefix on their actual order numbers. The only option would be that they are using a suffix, but I am not convinced of that either. I do not see a pattern in the ending of these numbers. And if I were to take off the last digit of the order number, that would make their order numbers only 5 digits. Shopify starts with order number 1000, which would mean they only have received just over 55,000 total orders. Nugget reported on their website in 2019 they sold over 50,000 Nugget couches. 

So unless they are inserting many thousands of fake orders into their own systems, it does not appear that I am being duped. Nugget is really generating that much revenue.

Fomo

Nugget Comfort has used Fomo (fear of missing out) to drive sales for them. Their product has been back-ordered for the past year and a half. But their back-order appears to be coming to an end. Back in June, their lead time was 4-6 weeks. In August, it was down to 2-4 weeks. Today it is only one week (a reasonable time frame for furniture to ship). 

Nugget still does planned limit runs. They will introduce new colors and only run those colors for a limited time period before they “retire” those colors. I have seen them bring back “retired” colors for limited releases as well.

The Buzz

As I mentioned before, Nugget Comfort does not run any Facebook or Google advertising. They feed off the buzz around their product. On Instagram, they are tagged in posts around 800-1,000 times per month. There are groups on Facebook that have tens of thousands of members dedicated to talking about the Nugget Couch.

Here are Nugget Comfort (@nuggetcomfort) Instagram Followers by month:

June – 414K

July – 418K

August – 427K

September – 434K

Where Could Nugget Go?

I have to imagine sales will only increase during the holiday season for them, but after that, I have to believe some of the organic buzz that was created by people wanting these but not being able to get one has to die down a little bit. I desperately want to see if they turn on Facebook and Google Advertising, and if they do, what will their strategy be. More to come on Nugget Comfort. 

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How Does BruMate’s DTC Business Stack Up To The Competition?

This week Trends sent out this article: How Dylan Jacob Scaled BrüMate to $100m+ in 5 Years. It just so happens that I have been tracking BruMate for a couple of months. Here is what I am seeing on their DTC (direct to consumer) side of their business.

The Numbers:

In the past 52 days, BruMate processed just over 135,000 orders. I estimate their average order value to be about $40 dollars. This gives them approximately $5.4M in revenue on their DTC channel for this time period.

How does this compare?

I have also been tracking S’well. Over the same time period, S’well processed 48,718 orders. I estimate their average order value to be about $35. This gives them approximately $1.7M in revenue on their DTC channel for this time period.

BruMate is processing almost 3x as many orders as S’well on their website.

Facebook Advertising

Currently, BruMate has 500 active ads on Facebook. The vast majority of these ads have photos for their creatives rather than videos.

See BruMate’s Facebook Ads

As a comparison, S’well only has 13 active ads on Facebook

See S’well’s Facebook Ads

Google Search Advertising

These are the top 5 Paid Keywords for BruMate:

  1. brumate
  2. rum punch
  3. sphere ice molds
  4. brumate coupon
  5. wine tumbler

I found the rum punch keyword to be fascinating as it is such a general term. BruMate has a blog titled: “The Best Rum Punch Recipes to Get Your Party Started“. This page serves as good content to get traffic to their website, only at the very bottom do they mention their BruMate products.

These are the top 5 paid Keywords for S’well:

  1. swell
  2. swell bottle
  3. swell water bottle
  4. swell water bottles
  5. s’well water bottle

It is common that a brand’s top keyword is their brand name, but it is nice to see with BruMate that they are able to drive traffic from non-branded keywords. It appears S’well does not try to compete on non-branded keywords.

Instagram

BruMate (@bru.mate) has 418K followers on Instagram. In the month of September, they posted 25 times. And in the past 7 days, they were tagged 92 times in posts. 

S’well (@swellbottle) has 272K followers on Instagram. In the month of September, they posted 14 times. And in the the past 7 days, they were tagged 50 times in posts.

Audience Demographics

BruMate:

S’Well:

Both brands have extremely similar audience demographics. 

Beyond DTC

The Trends article showed the revenue channels for BruMate, DTC, Amazon, and wholesale. It also mentioned they are doing about $100M+ in annual revenue. My best guess is they BruMate will do about $20M-25M through their DTC channel. That means Amazon and wholesale pick up the other $75M-$80M of yearly revenue.

S’well also has surpassed $100M in total annual revenue. My best guess is they will generate about $20M through their DTC channel. S’well has a large wholesale business, including a large promotional product/customization business. 

Both of these companies have done a great job building their brand. And once that brand was established, it opened up doors for wholesale and customization.

Start with DTC, build the brand, then expand to wholesale and partnerships.

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Sunglass Wars Part III: Seasonality Is Here

Previous Sunglass Wars Articles:​
​Sunglass Wars: Blenders Eyewear vs Shady Rays​
​Sunglass Wars Part II: Blenders vs Shady Rays (August Update)​
​
I have been following Blenders Eyewear and Shady Rays for the past three and a half months, and it appears in September, seasonality has officially set in. Here is the Google search volume for the term “sunglasses” over the past 4 years:

Every July, search volume peaks for sunglasses and bottoms out in October. And I am seeing the same trend with the revenue for Blenders Eyewear and Shady Rays:

In September, Blenders averaged 2,500 orders per day for an estimated revenue of $3.5M. This is down from August which they saw 3,500 orders per day for an estimated revenue of $4.9M and in July, 5,200 orders for an estimated revenue of about 7.3M

Shady Rays averaged just over 2,000 orders per day for an estimated revenue of about $2.8M in September. This is down from August which they saw just under 3,500 orders per day for an estimated revenue of $4.8M and in July, 6,000 orders per day for an estimated revenue of about $8.4M.

In July, Shady Rays outperformed Blenders, but Blenders has been out performing Shady Rays in August and September.

Instagram Stats

(note: Shady Rays follower count on the right axis)

Follower count growth has slowed for both companies (again, no surprise based on seasonality). Blenders now has 555K followers and Shady Rays has 126K followers.

Both companies posted on Instagram about 1 time per day during the month of September, however Blenders was tagged in posts almost 4x as much as Shady Rays.

TikTok and Reels

Blenders is making a little bit of an effort to utilize TikTok and Reels, while Shady Rays not made any efforts. It appears most platforms are trying to push more video content out (as it seems that’s what consumers want).

Blenders is averaging about 40K views on their Instagram Reels and about 1700 views on their TikTok videos.

I would like to see both of these brands try to create more content for these channels as they can be great for getting exposure for your brand.

Facebook Ads

Here is more confirmation that seasonality has hit. Blenders currently has 730 active ads on Facebook (in August, they had 870 ads, and in July, over 1600 ads).

Shady Rays has 110 active ads on Facebook (in August, they had 81 ads and in July 160 ads).

I obviously cannot see the ad spend for both of these companies but my guess is that it correlates with the number of active ads they have. Their peak spending was in July and have backed down since then.

​See Blenders Eyewear Facebook Ads​

​See Shady Rays Facebook Ads​

​

Top Paid Keywords

Here are the top paid keywords for both of these brands over the past 3 months:

I find it interesting that for both brands had “…for women” appear in their top 5 keywords this month. I really do not have an explanation for it, or even a guess but it was interesting that it occurred for both brands.

The Sunglasses War

After the first month, I had that Shady Rays is currently winning the war. However, after 3 months now, I believe that Blenders will win the war. That doesn’t mean I think that Shady Rays is going to zero, it means I think Blenders will outperform Shady Rays in the long run. I think Blenders has a stronger brand and they are better at showcasing that brand.

Blenders represents being outdoors by the beach (surfing, skateboarding, playing volleyball, or just hanging out). Shady Rays is about being outdoors, but where that is is not clearly defined and they have been all over the map with influencers they partner with (professional wrestler, Olympic gymnast, racecar driver, and more). I can not clearly define who a Shady Rays customer is, but I can clearly define who a Blenders Eyewear customer is.

I will continue to follow both of these brands to see if my opinions hold true. My bet is both of these brands will have another down month in October and then maybe a small bump for the holidays. We will not see significant monthly revenue growth until March 2022.