Follow Up To “Are My Methods Accurate”: 98% Accuracy Estimating Figs’ Revenue


On January 6th, I posted my Q4 and 2021 total revenue estimates for Figs. I estimated that Figs would generate around $126M in Q4 and end with $417M-$418M Total 2021 Revenue. Figs released their earnings yesterday, and we now get to see how accurate my tracking methods are.

Figs reported revenues of $128.7M in Q4 and total 2021 revenue of $419.6M. My estimates from my tracking methods got me to 98% accuracy of their actual numbers.

Key Takeaway For Figs In 2021

  • 2021 Revenue was $419M, 2020 Revenue was $263M
  • Figs has 1.9M active customers as of December 31, 2021. Figs ended 2020 with 1.3M active customers. This is an increase of 46%. (Figs defines an active customer as a unique customer account that has made at least one purchase in the preceding 12-month period.)
  • 2021 Average Order Size was $105. In 2020 this was $94.
  • 68% of their customers come back and buy again. Figs has a 95% retention rate from year 2 to year 3 (meaning if the customer purchases in year 2, they are likely to be a customer for life).
  • 17% of their revenue comes from their lifestyle apparel (non-scrub apparel)
  • 7% of their total revenue came from non-United States markets


Figs went public in May of 2021 with a valuation of about $4.6B. Figs’ stock price over the summer rose above $40/share, giving them a valuation of around $7B. However, the stock price has continued to slide since it’s summer highs. The stock price reached an all-time low on March 4th, closing at $13.44. Today, post Q4 earnings call, the stock has jumped nearly 25%, giving Figs a current valuation of about $3B.

More Sales At Full Price

In Q4 2021, Figs limited their discounts and moving forward their strategy will be to sell more at full price. To do this Figs is focusing on personalization and dynamic pricing.

Figs is using a tool called Nosto, which enables online retailers to deliver their customers a personalized shopping experience, not only on-site but through email and Facebook advertisements too.

Personalization has allowed Figs to grow their average order value by selling more at full price and selling more items in each order.

Frequent Product Drops

Another growth driver for Figs has been their frequent product drops. Almost weekly, Figs has a new product released on their website (and these products often sell out quickly). This builds up a fear of missing out and has successfully driven sales for other brands that I have tracked.

January and February Sales Data

In January, Figs received 315,000 orders. And in February, they received over 225,000 orders. At an average order value of $105, Figs generated $33M in revenue in January and $23.6M in revenue in February.

Q1 2021, Figs generated $87M in sales. For the first 2 months of Q1 2022, Figs has generated $56.6M in sales. To beat Q1 2021, Figs will need to generate more than $31M in sales in March.

Targeting Competitors

Starting in 2022, I noticed Figs began to bid on their competitor’s brand name with their paid search terms. Terms such as:


Jannuu Scrubs

Carhartt Scrubs

Allheart Scrubs

Barco Scrubs

This means when a person searches a Figs’ competitor’s name, a Figs ad will pop up. I had not seen this strategy from Figs in 2021. And from the looks of it, the strategy may be working as “Jannuu” is their 3rd best performing keyword.


Figs has projected 2022 revenue to be $550M – $560M. This is a 30% year-over-year growth rate. To do this, they plan to acquire more new customers in 2022 than they did in 2021. They also plan to continue to grow their average order size through personalization and selling more at full price. They will also look to increase their repeat purchase rate.

Check back at the beginning of April for my Q1 2022 Figs Revenue estimate!



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