It is time to play: guess Figs’ Q1 revenue before they release earnings. I was able to estimate their Q4 2021 and FY 2021 revenue with a 98% accuracy.
I did notice something interesting about their Q4 earnings release. They reported $128.7M in revenue with an average order value of $113. That means by their numbers, they had 1,138,938 orders during that period. However, from my tracking I had them receiving 1,260,060 orders during that period.
So why are they reporting less orders than I am tracking?
My assumption is cancelations. Figs should only be reporting revenue for orders that they ship and that are received by the customer (standard revenue recognition practices according to GAAP). I am tracking all orders they received (regardless of cancelation status). It looks like in Q4 they received about 9% more orders then they shipped and delivered to their customers.
How was I 98% accurate if I was 9% off of their total number of orders?
Good question. The answer is that I factored cancelation into their average order value. They reported $113 as their average order value and I calculated their average order value at $102. However, to stay consistent with their reporting, I will factor in cancelations into their total number of orders and not their average order value.
Q1 2022 Estimates
Figs received just over 1,000,000 orders in Q1. Factoring in a cancelation rate of 8.5%, they recognized 944,000 orders for revenue in this period. Using their average order value of $113, this means Figs generated approximately $106.6M in revenue for Q1 2022.
In Q1 2021, Figs reported $87M in revenue. This means year-over-year, Figs has grown its revenue by 20%. Figs’ 2022 guidance for total yearly revenue is $550M-$560M, a 30% increase year over year. Q1 does come in under this growth target, but to be fair, Q1 has been their lowest revenue period (Figs will see higher year-over-year growth later this year).
I have been tracking Figs’ valuation for a long time now and quite frankly, I still have no idea what they should be valued at. They went public with a valuation of around $4.6B, their valuation peaked at around $7B, and their valuation dipped as low as $2.2B.
Their stock price has climbed back up a little since their 2021 earnings release, and today, their stock price sits at $20.29, giving them a valuation of $3.33B.
I expect Figs to release their Q1 2022 earnings about a month from now. I will be back to assess how accurate my prediction was and break down any new information they release. Stay tuned!