I have officially tracked Nugget Comfort for 1 year and here are the results…
For a little more background on Nugget Comfort, you can read my previous write-ups on them:
- THIS COMPANY SOLD MORE THAN $4M OF PRODUCT IN JUNE WITH ZERO AD SPEND
- NUGGET COMFORT CONTINUES TO IMPRESS IN JULY!
- $5M+ MONTHLY SALES FROM BUILDING DEMAND THROUGH SCARCITY
- HOW I TRACK AND ESTIMATE DTC/ECOMMERCE SALES (PLUS AN UPDATE ON NUGGET COMFORT)
- NUGGET COMFORT – WHAT DO YOU DO FOR BLACK FRIDAY/CYBER MONDAY WHEN YOU DON’T DO DISCOUNTS
June 2021 – May 2022 Revenue Estimates
Nugget Comfort received 358,000 orders between June 2021 and May 2022. However, I have learned from tracking Figs that not all orders received are delivered. A portion of these orders will be canceled.
A fair cancelation rate to go with is between 7-10%. For our purposes, I will use 10% for Nugget Comfort estimates.
With a 10% cancelation rate, Nugget Comfort will recognize revenue on about 322,200 orders.
And with an estimated average order value of $225, Nugget Comfort will recognize approximately $72.5M in revenue during this 1 year period.
ZERO DIGITAL AD SPEND!!!!
Over this 1 year period, Nugget Comfort has not run 1 single Facebook/Instagram ad, not 1 Google Ad, no ads that I can find at all.
$72M in sales with zero ad spend!
As I have written before, Nugget Comfort has been masterful at building up demand through FOMO (fear of missing out). The Nugget Couch became wildly popular in Facebook mom groups, and when the pandemic hit, demand for this product skyrocketed.
Nugget ran a lottery in December 2020 for the opportunity to purchase 1 of the 60,000 units available for sale. Over 200,000 people signed up for the lottery.
New Product Launches and Partnerships
Nugget frequently released and “sold out” of new colors for their couches. I put sold-out in quotes because I am not convinced they actually sold out of the product, but they gave the appearance they did (driving FOMO even more). Often, Nugget would bring back retired or sold-out colors for limited sales throughout the year.
In November 2021, Nugget comfort partnered with Sesame Street to launch an Elmo cover Nugget Couch. As you could imagine, these sold out immediately. At the end of January, Nugget came back with another release with Sesame Street. This time it was the Emo Nugget and the Cookie Monster Nugget.
And just yesterday (June 7th), Nugget released their Outdoor Nugget. The same Nugget Couch but with fabric that can brave the elements. Only $399! (said tongue in cheek).
Indicators
Every month, I track more than just the sales data. I track website traffic, brand name search volume, and social media follower growth. I wanted to see if there would be any correlation between these data points that could prove to be indicators for a brand’s growth and sales.
As you can see from these 4 charts, they all look very similar. When sales spike, so does their monthly Instagram follower growth, so does their monthly searches, and so does their monthly website traffic.
If you see your competitor’s website traffic increase, or social media followers increase, or an increase in the number of times their brand name is being searched, it may be safe to assume that their sales are likely increasing as well.
